Avoid this Fantasy Premier League Hazard
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An FPL team without Hazard or Aguero?
A team without the top two points scorers in Fantasy Premier League last season seems like an almost ludicrous statement. But what could it mean for the rest of your team when you leave out the two most expensive players?
Many FPL managers will be starting the season without Aguero as he races to find match fitness following an extended Copa America run in – but when you consider over 50% of managers have Hazard in their teams from day one, are you just setting yourself up to fail by not selecting him? Not necessarily… but it puts a hell of a lot of pressure on who to select in place of him.
Here is a quick look at a team that we assembled without the pricey points getters and then we will compare it to a team with Hazard in and explain our strategy for bringing Aguero back in for the start of gameweek 4.
Let’s assess the differences. The team with Hazard in it still has a fairly full strength midfield and there is no impact on the defence in terms of money spent – but it did mean dropping Clyne as we couldn’t have the fourth Liverpool player (and we wouldn’t want four Liverpool players anyway). The big impact was on our forward line which included Defoe (with Hazard) but we were able to upgrade Defoe to Berahino (due to go to Spurs over the next day or so) and makes for a fairly strong front line. We did toy with the idea of dropping Walcott for Ozil and bringing in Costa for Rooney but we really fancy Rooney this season given the pre-season form and the statements coming from Old Trafford. We swapped Hazard for Sterling at Man City and stuck with the two Arsenal midfielders.
So what do these changes mean in real terms? Well, let’s say Hazard has a good week and scores two goals and grabs an assist… he will probably get 3 bonus points and therefore have himself 18 points. Let’s now add the 2 points that Defoe probably got us so we have 20 points.
So we have to beat 20 points with our two replacement players – for the purposes of this we will say they are Berahino and Sterling. Well let’s assume that Sterling gets and assist and Berahino gets a goal and they get one bonus point each. We end up with 13 points and are down 7 points.
That’s a lot of assumptions though, and what you need to ask yourself is which scenario was more likely? The Hazard dream game or the average one from Sterling and Berahino?
Let’s look at it another way… let’s use average points from last season.
Hazard – 233 points
Defoe – 122 points (doubled as played half a season)
Total points = 355 points
Sterling – 158 points
Berahino – 148 points
Total = 306 points
Our Hazardous Conclusion:
So either way it looks like Hazard has to be in your team and perhaps the more pertinent question should be what is more likely, for Hazard to repeat his excellent season or for Sterling and Berahino to have good seasons again? You can answer that question for yourself but we know what we think.
Hazard… you are an expensive bugger, but we cannot afford not to have you in our teams – and we haven’t even mentioned captains!
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