Fantasy Gaffer Gameweek 12 Tips – Guest Article
Fantasy Gaffer Guest Post – Gameweek 12
International breaks cause madness in fantasy premier league managers - this is a proven fact. We stare at screens 12 days in advance, wondering if it's worth a four-point hit to bank a possible £0.2m in earnings as Danny Ings U-21 brace causes his ownership to skyrocket. Fortunately, most of our ruminations are gone shortly after rosters lock. Unfortunately, they are replaced almost immediately by one of the five stages of the Kübler-Ross Grief Cycle. It aught to be renamed the "I've Captained Welbeck Grief Cycle". Frankly, I blame all the shite advice I read on the internet. Oh.
In the interest of sparing us all some grief, I've parsed the coming fixtures with a singular goal - finding the best use of a double-transfer coming out of the international break. Many players forgo the transfer ahead of a break to create space in which to maneuver their roster. Most FPL managers, having been dealt a cruel injury in an international friendly, will wait until the last moment to move. With that in mind, here are two 2:2 swaps that can be accomplished with the current prices (19/11/14 hours before sunrise) which may justify moving a day or two earlier than normal.
Update: Daniel Sturridge - Thigh Injury No Return Date Status: Ruled Out
— Injury Expert (@PremierInjuries) November 18, 2014
Of the Southampton trio, Jose Fonte is by far the least valuable as the largest part of his future value is tied to clean sheets. While both Nathaniel Clyne (£5.7, 31.9%) and Ryan Bertrand (£5.6, 22%) could be dropped given a looming run of brutal fixtures - Bertrand and Clyne (in that order) provide considerably more value in the attack. With City, Arsenal and United on the bounce, it is worth selling your Saints now - ahead of a GW12 trip to Villa Park - to retain the most value on their transfer out. Plus, Burnley's Trippier will have a decent shot at a clean sheet in GW12 as the Clarets travel to Stoke.
It is staggering to think that 8.1% of FPL sides have held Daniel Sturridge, or perhaps that is just indicative of the number of players who've already given up the ghost. Brendan Rodgers needs Sturridge back. For the Reds to salvage the season they need to ride the England forward and, given his long lay-off and continued setbacks, a period of blooding should be expected once the forward can return. In Manchester, the Red Devils are set to welcome their captain back to the pitch following his brace against Scotland. Rooney is already sharp and brimming with confidence ahead of the trip to the Emirates. We wouldn't captain the United skipper as yet, but he is a quality option for those chasing the pack and will see his value rise ahead of home fixtures with Hull and Stoke.
Sunderland travel to Leicester before hosting Chelsea and United in successive weeks - O'Shea should see the exit sooner than later. With him can go Cesc Fabregas. The Chelsea midfielder can pull the strings, but he has been slowly moving deeper into a deep-lying midfield role. Already with an injury to contend with, it is no guarantee that Jose Mourinho will risk Cesc against West Brom in GW12 (or even away to Sunderland the next week) as Chelsea chase Champions League points.
That is not say Chelsea midfielders should not be owned. Eden Hazard should continue to drive the attack and could easily add to his 3 goals (and 2 assists) in the coming weeks as Chelsea don't face a current (or even prospective) top 4 side for eight more gameweeks - until they meeting Southampton in GW19. Hazard is owned in just 16.3% of leagues compared to the more than 52% which boast his squad mate. Sell on Cesc early to lock in profit, invest in Hazard to double-down. Likewise, Dummett and the Magpies boast three clean sheets in their past four and face a friendly run for the next few with QPR (H) followed by trips to West Ham and Burnley.
One bonus pick In: Romelu Lukaku (£9.0m, 9.1%)
The Toffees' forward has twice hit goals in successive League fixture this term - accounting for his entire tally of four to date. He'll exit the break with something to prove. After scoring on 73' (having replaced Hazard at the half) in the friendly against Iceland, Lukaku was left on the bench as Belgium drew 0-0 with Wales in Euro qualifying. We expect Roberto Martinez to give the young man some room to work and believe home fixtures against West Ham (GW12) and Hull (GW14) will be big matches for Lukaku.